Ending Coercive Offending (ECO) – Theory of Change

The Problem

Children who are coerced into offending through exploitation (including county lines, violence, and drug-related harm) are routinely criminalised rather than safeguarded. Despite policy recognition of exploitation, criminal justice objectives continue to outweigh welfare considerations, resulting in long-term harm and injustice. 

If…

Systems and decision-makers are challenged to recognise coercion, grooming, and power imbalance as central to children’s offending behaviour, and safeguarding responses are prioritised over criminal justice outcomes.

Then… 

Children will be less likely to be criminalised for exploitation-linked harm, and more likely to receive protection, support, and proportionate responses that reduce long-term harm. 

Because…

Criminalisation compounds exploitation, entrenches inequality, and undermines safeguarding duties — whereas prevention and early intervention reduce harm, improve outcomes, and align systems with children’s rights 

ECO’s Role 

ECO intervenes at the system level, not just the individual level, by: 

  • Challenging decision-making frameworks 

  • Disrupting processes that default to criminal justice responses 

  • Influencing policy, practice, and system accountability 

Securing Long-Term Change 

  • Safeguarding responses consistently outweigh punitive outcomes 

  • Exploited children are recognised and treated as victims 

  • Criminalisation of coerced children is reduced at scale